Deciding where to invest abroad can be as confusing as figuring out the color of the dress (‘that almost broke the internet’ – USA Today) this week. If everyone thought the same way, there’d be no debate, no marketplace, and no room for improvement. However, for the dress, there was a science behind the reasoning – while for understanding the financial markets, we look at economics – a social science, in which other than just supply and demand, the interaction of humans in society is what drives the result. That same concept provides an interesting question – are we able to note what international regions are making the right decisions for the future – before other investors? We’re projecting some outperformance from a set of emerging markets in the coming years. Stay with us:
The 2000s was a decade undoubtedly ruled by the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) – a group of countries filled with untapped resources, aspirational workforces, and insufficient capital and infrastructure at the start – meaning there was significant room for investment. Goldman Sachs’ Jim O’Neill coined the term ‘BRICS’ in a landmark paper promoting them in 2001 – and consequently delivered one of the best projections in Wall Street history. This set of countries led the world’s growth, and gave a cumulative stock market return of over 420% from 2001 to 2010, compared to a 44% gain for the MSCI All-World Index and approximately 15% for the S&P 500.
So, does the credit all go to the fiscal and monetary heroes of these nations, that took the baton and ran with it for 10 years? Definitely, much of the progress came from the policies they implemented. But we believe there’s one factor that doesn’t get enough credit – a factor which the BRICS themselves didn’t have much of an influence on. And that’s the US interest rates.
Step back into 2001. The US was gathering the pieces from the technology bubble bust – and to help, the Fed stepped in and reduced interest rates from around 6% to below 2% – rates not seen since the 1950s – to get the economy back on track. Consequently, capital fled the US in search for yield, and with the BRICs positioned perfectly to greet it with the situation described above, came the outperformance. As the US’s consequent economic boom via consumption fueled Chinese manufacturing, Indian outsourcing and commodity consumption from Brazil and Russia, the BRICS were able to withstand the Fed’s rate increases from 2005 towards 2007. Consequently, the 2008 recession occurred, and we’re now somewhat back to square one, with even lower rates than 2002 and a much weaker global state than in 2006.
So, the real question is – which emerging countries – BRICS and beyond – took advantage of the capital rushing to their borders in the 2000s, and invested it wisely for the long term? Which countries shored up their infrastructure, delivered structural reforms, invested in education, privatization, and transparency to ensure that when the rates did go up, they’d be in good shape? We worry that Brazil and Russia did not take advantage of the cheap capital inflows to implement significant structural reforms, and China’s growth will continue to slow unless it starts focusing more on domestic consumption and promoting free markets. As they do, of course, we’ll revisit them. But in the meantime, in our opinion, the BRICS as a package deal is over – and the importance of the EEM index as a whole is diminishing. If we want exposure to the developing world, it’s time to be a bit selective.
So, we decided to screen the following factors to determine the next set of countries to outperform the world: demographics, primary contributors to GDP, global competitiveness, the orientation towards free markets, and leadership objectives involving private investment, foreign capital incentives, and smart government spending. We find Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, India, and South Korea to fit the criteria for investment along with Mexico and Nigeria, and believe these are the countries to watch for the next decade. Indonesia has rapidly risen to 38th from 50th in the Global Competitiveness Report by the WEF in just 2 years. A young population with a highly educated workforce, driven by technology, favors the Philippines and India, along with infrastructure-driven governmental spending and foreign reserves. Mexico has rapidly reformed its manufacturing sector to take advantage of international consumer discretionary spending, and South Korea remains coupled with (solid) US growth due to its export-driven economy. Nigeria, despite regional instability, has the fastest growing large African economy and population – we find this to be a very attractive entry location for the likely emergence of the continent in the coming years. Meanwhile, note that Wall Street’s joining the party – with MINT, TIMPS, and other acronyms slowly making their way into research reports, and replacing BRICS as the next set of world outperformers. We believe there’s plenty of room for everyone on this ride; it’s worth allocating a bit of your money to ETFs that provide exposure to these countries for a 5 year horizon.We’ll be speaking more on this subject in the coming weeks.
What it means for you: Given the impending US interest rate increase, we felt it was worth reflecting on the case study of the BRICS – and the highlighting the importance of understanding the drivers of any investment’s performance, rather than the performance itself. Today’s globally connected economy brings influences outside individual nations’ controls – and the ones that take advantage of them with a long term, visionary approach, are the ones you want to invest in for the coming years. Similar principles are applicable to single stocks as well. Refer to our column on ‘Keeping It Real While Investing’ for our thoughts on blending passive and active investment distribution, and think about allocating a bit of capital to the countries mentioned above in the coming weeks to benefit from the structural progress of the emerging markets.
